July 28, 2010

Real Estate Markets: Whats The Catalyst

The number of homeowners missing their first payment on their mortgage declined  from May to June and number of loans in foreclosure was flat at nearly 2 million.

Delinquencies and Foreclosures remain stable but elevated with two loans deteriorating for every one that has improved. 

So Whats The Catalyst
It's all about jobs and income growth and until that happens there's nothing that's going to push sales. As sales have slowed, the supply  of unsold homes on the market has risen 2.5 percent to nearly 4 million. That's a nearly nine-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest level since August. It compares with a healthy level of about six months.

Sales are likely to keep falling for three to four months, said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist. That would likely boost the supply of unsold homes to more than 10 months for the first time since the spring of 2009. And it could push down home prices.  

NARs Future Forcast
Bread Crumbs
Through May of this year 495,000 net private sector jobs have been created; NAR’s forecast for employment growth is about 1 million additional net new jobs over the balance of the year and another 2 million in 2011. If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions

Rae Rosen, a regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Wall Street typically hires in anticipation of the recovery, and there is a sense that the economy has bottomed out and is slowly improving
But NAR doesnt expect a sharp snap back in home prices in the upcoming years, although some local markets have experienced double-digit gains this year. NAR forecasts the national median home price to rise only 4 percent cumulatively over the next two years. 
The number of homeowners missing their first payment on their mortgage
 ticked down slightly from May to June, but the total number of loans in some stage of the foreclosure process remained essentially flat at nearly 2 million, according to statistics collected by Lender Processing Services.

Delinquencies and Foreclosures remain stable but elevated with two loans deteriorating for every one that has improved. 

So Whats The Catalyst
It's all about jobs and income growth and until that happens there's nothing that's going to push sales. As sales have slowed, the supply  of unsold homes on the market has risen 2.5 percent to nearly 4 million. That's a nearly nine-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest level since August. It compares with a healthy level of about six months.

Sales are likely to keep falling for three to four months, said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist. That would likely boost the supply of unsold homes to more than 10 months for the first time since the spring of 2009. And it could push down home prices.  

NARs Future Forcast
Bread Crumbs
Through May of this year 495,000 net private sector jobs have been created; NAR’s forecast for employment growth is about 1 million additional net new jobs over the balance of the year and another 2 million in 2011. If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions

Rae Rosen, a regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Wall Street typically hires in anticipation of the recovery, and there is a sense that the economy has bottomed out and is slowly improving
But NAR doesnt expect a sharp snap back in home prices in the upcoming years, although some local markets have experienced double-digit gains this year. NAR forecasts the national median home price to rise only 4 percent cumulatively over the next two years. 

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1 comment:

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