July 11, 2010

Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Applications Increase

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  07/07/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.5 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: increased 9.2 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009
Purchase Index: has decreased eight of the last nine weeks
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity:  increased to 78.7 percent of total applications from 76.8 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since April 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 5.4 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook:
(Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Mortgage rates remained near record lows last week, as incoming data on the job and housing markets were weaker than anticipated.  As more homeowners locked in to these low rates, the level of refinance applications increased to a new 13-month high, said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.  For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15% relative to the prior month, and were down more than 30%  compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit.

We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009.  Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane.  Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates.
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