August 20, 2008

US Foreclosures: Skewing Market Data

US home foreclosures increase 55%

More than 272,000 people in the US received a foreclosure notice in July, a rise of 55% on a year earlier, according to analysts Realtytrac. This amounts to something like 17% of all homes listed for sale are repossessed properties.

Via "Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley, said he thinks the foreclosure flood makes the market appear much worse than it really is.

"The headline will read, 'House prices plunge,' " he said. "Actually, what it should read is, 'Foreclosed house prices plunge.' The data show a much smaller (price) decline, between 5 percent and 10 percent in the core Bay Area of Silicon Valley, Oakland, Berkeley, San Francisco and Marin (if foreclosure sales are omitted)."

This is an interesting view
1. Amazingly bad market management on the part of the lenders....driving their own prices down and creating a sef fulfilling market decline

2. Ken Fischer may be right, but the fact that we have almost 1 of 5 homes foreclosing is a devastating loss and yes, not all homes are effected. He would be more correct in saying that if you remove four states from the United States, our housing markets would look like a normal downturn. But its not.

Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

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