Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  11/24/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume)     increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: decreased 1.0 percent from the previous week and is the lowest Refinance Index observed since the end of June. 
Purchase Index: increased 14.4 percent from one week earlier, which included Veterans Day. No adjustment was made for the holiday. On a seasonally adjusted basis, this is the highest Purchase Index recorded since the week ending May 7, 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago decreased to 78.6 percent of total applications from 80.3 percent the previous week.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 80.3 percent of total applications from 81.7 percent the previous week.

Arm Share: share of activity remained constant at 5.3 percent of total applications.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.13 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2010, a decrease of 72 basis points from the second quarter of 2010, and a decrease of 51 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from a downwardly revised $2.0 trillion in 2009, previously estimated at $2.1 trillion. Total originations will then fall to $996 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. Purchase activity in 2010 will see a significant drop from 2009, although it was given a brief boost in the spring by the tax credit program, but start to recover in 2011. Refinance activity is currently being buoyed by mortgage rates that remain close to historical lows, but will fall in 2011 and 2012 as rates start to increase. Purchase originations will fall to $480 billion from $665 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $921 billion in 2010 from $1.3 trillion in 2009. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 66 percent in 2010 to 37 percent in 2011, and then 26 percent in 2012.


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