Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 08/18/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 13.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12.4 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: increased 17.1 percent from the previous week and was the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009
Purchase Index: decreased 3.4 percent from one week earlier.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 81.4 percent of total applications from 78.1 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed since January 2009.
Arm Share: decreased to 5.7 percent from 5.9 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Existing home sales in June declined 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units from 5.66 million in May, and are 9.8 percent higher than in June of last year. Single family home sales fell 5.6 percent to 4.70 million units in June from 4.98 million units in May, and are 8.5 percent above the pace in June 2009. For both total existing home sales and single family home sales, the monthly decrease was the largest since January this year.
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.48 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will decrease 7 percent to $686 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the boost from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall by about 42 percent to $797 billion in 2010. We continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given that mortgage rates have continued to remain close to historical lows.
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