Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 4/7/2010Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 11.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier
Refinance Index: decreased 16.9 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: increased 0.5 percent compared with the previous week and was 18.1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The government purchase index increased significantly for the third straight week and as a result, the government share of purchase applications increased to 49.9 percent, its highest level since February 1990 and the third highest level in the history of the data.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 58.7 percent of total applications from 63.2 percent the previous week, marking the lowest share observed in the survey since the week ending August 28, 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 6.2 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The Federal Reserves mortgage purchase programs continued to taper off, with average weekly purchases falling to about $10 billion. Federal Reserve officials have reaffirmed their plans to complete this purchase program by the end of March.
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.3 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will decline by 1.6 percent to $726 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 56 percent to $604 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first quarter have been somewhat higher than anticipated as rates have remained low despite the reductions in MBS purchases by the Fed, and we have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.