Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 2/10/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier

Refinance Index: increased 1.4 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7.0 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: The four week moving average is up 1.3 percent

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Arm Share: remained unchanged at 4.5 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The December job report showed an 85,000 drop in employment and an unemployment rate steady at 10 percent, but only because many discouraged workers have stopped looking for jobs . It may set the tone for a slow recovery.

Dips in new and pending home sales in November and purchase applications in December show that home sales are likely to adjust downward in the months ahead, even though the tax credit was extended. New construction remains weak.

We anticipate that mortgage rates will rise by about a percentage point through the year, to end at 6.1 percent, as a result of widening mortgage spreads and an increase in Treasury rates.

MBA projects that mortgage originations will decrease from about $2.1 trillion in 2009 to about $1.3 trillion in 2010. MBA forecasts that purchase originations will increase from $742 billion in 2009 to $776 billion in 2010, while refinance originations are projected to fall from $1.372 trillion to $502 billion.

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