Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 1/13/2010Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 14.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier
Refinance Index: increased 21.8 percent from last weekâ€™s holiday adjusted index and increased 73.9 percent from last weekâ€™s unadjusted index
Purchase Index: increased 0.8 percent from one week earlier.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 71.5 percent of total applications from 68.2 percent the previous week
unchanged at 4.0 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The December jobs report was indicates a slow recovery. 85,000 jobs lost and an unemployment holding at 10 percent.Bloated inventories of unsold homes, buoyed by continued inflows of foreclosed properties, will keep a lid on home prices for some time. We do not expect more typical rates of home price appreciation until 2012. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates in 2010, but they will meet their commitment to purchase $1.25 trillion in agency MBS by the end of the first quarter.
The MBAA anticipates that mortgage rates will rise by about a percentage point through the year, to end at 6.1 percent. Eye-popping federal budget deficits and positive economic growth will put upward pressure on Treasuries. Yields on mortgage securities will need to increase to get private investors back into the market once the Fed stops its purchases.
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