Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Continue to Climb

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.83 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 16, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.61 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.94 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.17 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.96 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.38 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.77 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.60 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.37 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.35 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.27 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.34 percent.

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Market concerns over stronger economic growth that, in the near term, could lead to an increase in inflation have sparked a rise in bond yields and mortgage rates have followed. For instance, the growth in retail sales excluding automobiles in November was twice that of the market consensus forecast. Industrial production showed the biggest gain in November since July, according to the Federal Reserve Board . And consumer sentiment, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index, rose to a six month high in December. As a result, interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages this week were the highest since the week of May 20th of this year.
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Multi Famiily Rentals Improve

The demographics

The multifamily sector is in recovery. According to Reis, net absorption in 3Q spiked, dropping the national vacancy rate from 7.8% to 7.1%, one of the largest quarterly drops on record.

Rents increased for the second quarter in a row. Asking and effective rents increased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively in the third quarter over the previous quarter.

Renter demographics
Who Are They

People Needing Flexibility
Renting can provide more flexibility, greater convenience and lower costs than buying a home. As a result, certain households are more likely to rent than own, including young singles starting out, families relocating to a new metropolitan area, recent immigrants to the United States, and low-income household

In Transition
such as a change in job or marital status. For example, over 60 percent of households that moved in 2003 because of divorce or separation chose to live in a rented unit.

Relocating
For owners who are relocating, rental housing can be a good option if they expect to move again within a few years.

Immigrants
When birth rates among the native born population fell sharply after the baby boom, many feared that rental demand would drop off precipitously. But thanks to the strength of immigration, the number of renter households remained steady through the 1990s and early 2000s as foreign-born households supplemented the rental demand of native-born households. The arrival of young foreign-born households thus tempered the decline in renters aged 25–34 from 20 percent to 12 percent, and in renters aged 35–44 from 18 percent to 7 percent over the 1994–2004 period. Indeed, without these immigrants, the total number of renters would have fallen by more than 2 million (5 percent), rather than rising modestly by 100,000.

Retirees Moving Back
 As the baby boom population ages and their children leave home, some will opt for moving out of their homes and into apartments that require less upkeep and allow them the freedom to do what they want.They fit into he category of lifestyle renters.  Not wanting or needing the cost and obligations of home ownership and choosing the mobility that comes with the lesser commitment of renting, expect a lot of retirees coming back into citys for ease of access to theater, larger communities of like interests and excitement not available in suburbs.

Echo Boomers
National Association of Housing Builders chief economist believes that 83 million echo boomers will enter residential renter market and lead the demand for apartment units over the next few years, approximately 3.2 million between 2010 and 2012. This demographic trend coupled with a strong immigration trends will drive apartment fundamentals. This housing crash happens in the formative years of this population. Will the bias towards home ownership still hold or will echo boomers, raised during this crises, hold a bias towards renting over ownership.

Its clear that rental property will have a brighter future and likely to recover first. The caveat here is that jobs will be a determining factor. If job growth is meager then echo boomers may stay home longer or double up as roommates.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Bond Yields Rise and So Do Mortgage Rates

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.61 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 9, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.46 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.81 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 3.96 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.32 percent. .

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.60 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.49 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.26 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.27 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.25 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.24 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

After Europe made strides in its debt situation, investors left the security of U.S. Treasury debt causing bond yields to rise and mortgage rates along with them.  Interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages are now almost a half percentage point higher than the record low set in mid November, which for a $200,000 conventional loan amounts to $50 more in monthly payments.

Housing demand appears to be picking up recently. Existing pending sales jumped 10.4 percent in October to the strongest pace since April, according to the National Association of Realtors. More recently, mortgage applications for home purchases rose for the three consecutive weeks ending on December 3rd, representing a 17.7 percent increase and the strongest pace since the week of May 7th, based on figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Applications Decrease

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  12/8/2010

Market Composite Index:(loan application volume)    decreased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 22.8 percent compared with the previous week, which included the Thanksgiving Holiday

Refinance Index: decreased 1.4 percent from the previous week. This is the fourth weekly decrease for the Refinance Index which reached its lowest level since June 2010

Purchase Index:  increased 1.8 percent from one week earlier. This is the third weekly increase for the Purchase Index which reached its highest level since early May 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 21.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 12.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. 
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 75.2 percent of total applications from 74.9 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent of total applications from the previous week. 

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.13 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2010, a decrease of 72 basis points from the second quarter of 2010, and a decrease of 51 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from a downwardly revised $2.0 trillion in 2009, previously estimated at $2.1 trillion. Total originations will then fall to $996 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. Purchase activity in 2010 will see a significant drop from 2009, although it was given a brief boost in the spring by the tax credit program, but start to recover in 2011. Refinance activity is currently being buoyed by mortgage rates that remain close to historical lows, but will fall in 2011 and 2012 as rates start to increase. Purchase originations will fall to $480 billion from $665 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $921 billion in 2010 from $1.3 trillion in 2009. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 66 percent in 2010 to 37 percent in 2011, and then 26 percent in 2012.

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Apartment Sector: The First One Out

This is the one real estate area that seems to be looking up. There is no question thatapartments really scream when it comes to actual performance and renewed investment confidence, says Hessam Nadji, managing director of research and advisory services at Marcus & Millichap. The apartments sector is leading the recovery. Nationally, apartment vacancies declined 20 basis points during the first half to reach 7.8%, setting the stage for rent growth.
Demographics: The rental sector is the one area that that is looking like its in a recovery. Residential housing was t was over built and overbought, while rental properties barely kept up with the demographics. Harvard studies indicate that if you couple the under 30 age group to new immigrants and retirees looking to move back to the city for convenience, as a whole they are a potential renter pool larger than the the boomer generation. That is huge!
Supply: Over 4.3 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Moreover, the shadow inventory (chart) of REO properties, as well as distressed mortgages facing foreclosure, will take nearly three years to clear at the current sales rate, according to an S&P report. S&P analysts concluded that \many servicers will likely shift from mortgage modification to loan liquidation. Hopefully, the banks will distribute supply onto the market with an eye to price stability or at least an orderly decline. With that in mind expect supply to continue to increase and prices to continue to decline.
Jobs: The average number of days delinquent for loans in foreclosure is a record 492 days. Its pretty obvious that jobs are the main culprit now and the expectation is that unemployment will remain more or less constant for the next year. Apartments look better partly because they never participated in the building boom that homes experienced and supply to renter pool favors lower vacancy rates and higher rents.
Investor Psychology: The Census Bureau releases a Housing Tenure, which measures the balance between owner occupied and renter occupied housing units. Owner occupied units have been on the decline and the number of renter occupied units has soared to 34.% in 2009. Of course, jobs are highly correlated to rent and vacancy rates, so this should be seen as fragile and early recovery. Yet rent rates have been increasing and vacancy rates have been declining, even in this weak job market. I think there has been a shift in the investor psychology that benefits the rental property.
Politics of Housing: Congress had mandated that the GSE emphasize home purchases at the expense of rental property. The Congressional Budget Office reported, the government in 2009, devoted nearly four times as much to support homeownership.$230 billion for homes and about $60 billion for multi family property, helping fuel the bubble. It was a primary cause for so many bad decisions…..loose money always is. My guess is that GSE money flow will now favor rental property and affordable housing in particular. The new real estate opportunity is in rentals, they will be the first to recover.
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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Stable

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.40 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending November 24, 2010, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.39 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 3.77 percent with an average 0.7 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.76 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.29 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.45 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.40 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.18 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.35 percent

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
During a holiday shortened week, average mortgage rates were largely unchanged from the prior week. Growth in gross domestic product in the third quarter was revised up from the initial estimate to an annualized rate of 2.5 percent, as stronger consumer spending and exports supported the revision.

Homeowner balance sheets are also improving. Mortgage delinquency rates continued to move down in the third quarter, with the overall delinquency rate falling to 9.13 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. For the first time during the housing downturn, the overall delinquency rate is lower than it was a year earlier.

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  11/24/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume)     increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: decreased 1.0 percent from the previous week and is the lowest Refinance Index observed since the end of June. 
Purchase Index: increased 14.4 percent from one week earlier, which included Veterans Day. No adjustment was made for the holiday. On a seasonally adjusted basis, this is the highest Purchase Index recorded since the week ending May 7, 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago decreased to 78.6 percent of total applications from 80.3 percent the previous week.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 80.3 percent of total applications from 81.7 percent the previous week.

Arm Share: share of activity remained constant at 5.3 percent of total applications.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.13 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2010, a decrease of 72 basis points from the second quarter of 2010, and a decrease of 51 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from a downwardly revised $2.0 trillion in 2009, previously estimated at $2.1 trillion. Total originations will then fall to $996 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. Purchase activity in 2010 will see a significant drop from 2009, although it was given a brief boost in the spring by the tax credit program, but start to recover in 2011. Refinance activity is currently being buoyed by mortgage rates that remain close to historical lows, but will fall in 2011 and 2012 as rates start to increase. Purchase originations will fall to $480 billion from $665 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $921 billion in 2010 from $1.3 trillion in 2009. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 66 percent in 2010 to 37 percent in 2011, and then 26 percent in 2012.


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