March 15, 2009

Adverse Negative Feedback Loop



First there was the subprime mess which collapsed the housing market. Then the independent mortgage companies collapsed and then came a credit freeze because the banks no longer functioned with all these bad loans weighing them down. They began to husband what resources they had left and this led to companies forced to cut back because they couldnt get normal operating flows due to the lending curbs. Then came the massive layoffs and a collapse in confidence that caused consumers and business alike to pull back on spending, buying or investing. This led to more misery and more cut backs, stock markets losses and more failures and foreclosures.

Welcome to what Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke Tuesday described as the destructive power of the so-called adverse feedback loop, in which weakening economic and financial conditions become mutually reinforcing and how severe recessions become a gathering storm.

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Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

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Special thanks to blue adept for the photo

March 5, 2009

Freddie Mac Weekly Mortgage Update: MORTGAGE RATES UP


30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.15 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending March 5, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 5.07 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.03 percent.

15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.72 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.68 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.47 percent.

Five-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 5.08 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 5.06 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.34 percent

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.86 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.94 percent.

From the Freddie Mac Site

Mortgage rates followed bond yields higher this week following reports of record continuing jobless claims and a downward revision in economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2008, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.

Real Gross Domestic Product was revised from a 3.8 percent decline to a 6.2 percent drop in the fourth quarter mostly led by a 4.3 percent fall in consumer spending, which was the largest decrease since the second quarter of 1980. The housing market continues to slow as well. New home sales fell 10.2 percent in January to the slowest pace since records began in January 1963 while pending existing home sales slowed by 7.7 percent, the weakest since the series began in January 2001. More recently the Federal Reserve noted in its March 4th regional economic report that residential real estate markets remained in the doldrums in most areas, with only scattered, very tentative signs of stabilization..

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

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March 1, 2009

Obama and Mortgage-Aid


Almost One of Three Homeowners Under Water

According to Moodys, almost 27 percent of home owners are now under water and owe more on their mortgage than their house is now worth. Obama has some new ideas to help homeowners wending their way through this uncharted territory

Fannie and Freddie


Refi - Remove restrictions from refinancing mortgages Fannie and Freddie own or have guaranteed when more is owed on a home than it is worth. The White House says this could reduce monthly payments for up to 5 million homeowners.

Incentives

Lenders - The government will make up part of the difference between the old monthly payment and the new, for those lenders that will reduce the value of a mortgage. Participating lenders would be required to cut payments to no more than 31 percent of a borrower’s income. Up to 4 million homeowners could benefit.

Liquidity - The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve will continue to buy Fannie and Freddie mortgage-backed securities to maintain stability and liquidity. Obama has 200 billion for this project.

The government said it would absorb up to $200 billion in losses at each company, by using money Congress set aside last year.,

New Bankruptcy Rules - Changing bankruptcy rules so judges can reduce mortgages on primary homes to their fair market value. The borrower must abide by the court mandated payment plans.

Community Support - 2 billion in grants to communities that will use innovative methods to help reduce foreclosures.

When we are done with all of this expense we will be looking at a debt to equity ratio of 90%. The next generation will be saddled with very high taxes and/or inflation.

Obama's argument is that we can grow our way out of this with an economic expansion of 3-4% a year. I certainly hope we can because otherwise we will be an aging, indebted society that will have to make hard choices about caring for its elderly and educating its immigrant young.

Warren Buffet just released his annual shareholders report, dismal though it was he left us with this: "Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America's best days lie ahead." Amen

Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

Your Property Path Amazon Store

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February 21, 2009

Obamanomics: The Plan to Save the World

Well, few are actually convinced this plan will even pull us out. Personally, I think this is just the prologue to the big event. The Obama team will peer into the banks books under the "stress test" mechanism to determine which banks could survive with help and which ones should be let go without tax payer money.

This is the psychological set up that will allow the Govt to declare the problem is worse than thought. Im sure we will see a replay of that great film Casablanca, where Claude Rains shuts down Ricks cafe. Im shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here.....



We have spent trillions to prop up the financial system and still its a black hole. I think everybody knows that the banks are insolvent. My guess is that we will find trillions more in bad debt or debt that cannot be evaluated. Once this is out and the damage revealed, the rest of the plan to save the world will be unveiled to a public that is willing to go the distance....this is gonna cost

Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property Path news Brief

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February 19, 2009

LOWER MORTGAGE RATES TRANSLATE INTO LARGE VOLUME OF REFINANCING


30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.16 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 12, 2009, down from last week when it averaged 5.25 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.72 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.81 per cent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.92 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.25 percent.

Five-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 5.23 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.26 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.19 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.94 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.92 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.00 percent.

From the Freddie Mac Site

Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are almost 1.5 percentage points below 2008's peak set on July 24, 2008, offering many homeowners an incentive to refinance, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. This would translate into a monthly payment savings of around $188 on a $200,000 mortgage.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that the weighted average mortgage rate of loans outstanding was about 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. As a result, the share of refinancing among the total number of conventional mortgage applications has exceeded 50 percent for the past 11 weeks and averaged 80 percent over this period, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association

Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property Path news Brief

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Snap News updates real estate markets and all things of interest to property owners and real estate professionals

Your Property Path Amazon Store

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February 12, 2009

MORTGAGE RATES HOLD STEADY


30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.16 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 12, 2009, down from last week when it averaged 5.25 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.72 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.81 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.92 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.25 percent.
Five-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 5.23 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.26 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.19 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.94 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.92 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.00 percent.

From the Freddie Mac Site

Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are almost 1.5 percentage points below 2008's peak set on July 24, 2008, offering many homeowners an incentive to refinance,said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. This would translate into a monthly payment savings of around $188 on a $200,000 mortgage.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that the weighted average mortgage rate of loans outstanding was about 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. As a result, the share of refinancing among the total number of conventional mortgage applications has exceeded 50 percent for the past 11 weeks and averaged 80 percent over this period, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

Your Property Path Amazon Store

http://astore.amazon.com/yourpropertypath20-20

super deals on agent open house tools We hand picked Amazon for the tools you need


February 3, 2009

Banks Getting the Message


Our Money is Not To Be Misused

The first TARP distribution of more than 350 billion dollars was used to provide bonus's and for mergers and acquisitions. That and the outrage over 20 billion in bonus money handed out to Merill Lynch execs seems to have finally gotten through to the people who have broken just about everything.

via cbsmarketwatch.com: Citigroup Inc. unveiled plans for using $36.5 billion of the $45 billion it received in government investment recently, saying the lion's share will go to residential mortgage lending.

In addition to the mortgage lending, Citi said it would use $2.50 billion for personal and business loans, $1 billion for student loans, $5.8 billion for credit card lending and $1.5 billion for corporate loans

We can demand these institutions use our money properly or face serious consequences. Whats shameful is that these are not criminal events and so people like this cannot be prosecuted.

Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

Snap News updates real estate markets and all things of interest to property owners and real estate professionals

Your Property Path Amazon Store

http://astore.amazon.com/yourpropertypath20-20

super deals on agent open house tools We hand picked Amazon for the tools you need