January 27, 2011

Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Applications Decrease


  • Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  01/26/2010


    Market Composite Index:
    (loan application volume)     A  measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12.0 percent compared with the previous week. The results do not include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday.

    Refinance Index: decreased 15.3 percent from the previous week and reached its lowest level since January 2010.

    Purchase Index:  decreased 8.7 percent from one week earlier. The Purchase Index is at its lowest level since October 2010.  The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 20.8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
    Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 70.3 percent of total applications from 73.0 percent the previous week
    Arm Share:  increased to 5.2 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications from the previous week.

    MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org) 

    The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.
    The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

    We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997.  This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.
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  • Remodel: Is It An Investment

    Posted Under: Home Selling in San FranciscoCurb Appeal in San FranciscoRemodel & Renovate in San Francisco  |  January 25, 2011 4:27 PM  |  17 views  |  No comments

    People remodel because of immediate needs for the owner. Either its time for more space or just a desire to upgrade and modernize. Curb appeal and adding value is an important consideration, But resale value is hard to pin down.

    Home evaluation is hostage to market forces and individual taste. Thats why Replacement projects always perform better in resale value than other types of remodeling projects. They are less expensive projects that contribute to curb appeal, a strong subjective factor among home buyers.

    If you are remodeling because you need to reconfigure for your needs, always keep in mind the resale value of your remodel choice, but dont expect to get it all back. Balance your needs and consider the recapture amount of the project and then build out.

    Whatever you do don't overspend and don't be too unique. Most projects wont return your costs and certainly outside the norm remodels can take forever to sell. So where should you put your money...

    Biggest Bang For The Buck

    Remodel magazine does an annual survey and they point out that declining home prices and lower construction costs were overmatched by a 15.8% drop in estimated resale values. The ongoing uncertainty and loss of equity has hurt the recapture rate of remodels and upgrades. In other words, buyers arent willing to pay for remodels.

    Getting Your Money Back
    Top five remodels   (chart).

    1. Garage door replacement returned 84%
    2. Entry doors returned 102%
    3. fiber-cement siding replacement returned 80% of cost.
    4/5. Wood deck additions (66 - 73%) tied with minor kitchen remodel returning (60 - 68%)

    Getting the point? Dont go overboard. Most projects will return between 55 to 70% of your cost. If thats ok because you need space or will have lots of enjoyment then go ahead. But if you think you will recoup, likley not. 
  • Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Down for Second Week

    Posted Under: Home Buying in San FranciscoHome Selling in San FranciscoFinancing in San Francisco  |  January 20, 2011 11:10 AM  |  30 views  |  No comments
    30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.71 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 13, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.77 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.06 percent.

    The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.08 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.45 percent

    Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.72 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.32 percent.

    One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.23 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.24 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.39 percen 
    Freddie Sayz
    Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
    Bond yields drifted lower following the release of the December employment report , which was weaker than the market consensus forecast and implied that the labor market is still in a sluggish recovery.  Fixed mortgage rates followed bond yields lower for a second consecutive week, bringing them to a four-week low.

    In its January 12th regional economic review, the Federal Reserve noted that activity in residential real estate and new home construction remained slow across all Districts over the last two months of 2010 due to concerns about the pace of economic recovery, especially in employment. In addition, the outlooks for residential real estate were mixed, with contacts in most Districts described as expecting continued weak conditions

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  • Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Applications Increase

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in San FranciscoHome Selling in San FranciscoFinancing in San Francisco  |  January 20, 2011 11:00 AM  |  30 views  |  No comments

    Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  01/19/2010

    Market Composite Index: (loan application volume)   increased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.4 percent compared with the previous week. 

    Refinance Index: increased 7.7 percent from the previous week. This is the third consecutive weekly increase in refinance applications and is the highest Refinance Index observed since the beginning of December

    Purchase Index:  decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 16.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. 
    Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 73.0 percent of total applications from 72.1 percent the previous week.  This is the highest refinance share observed since the week ending December 10, 2010
    Arm Share: increased to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent of total applications from the previous week. 

    MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org) 

    The financial markets̢۪ response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Fed̢۪s proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.
    The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
    We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997.  This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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  • First The Clay And Now The Roxie

    Posted Under: Quality of Life in San FranciscoEntertainment & Nightlife in San FranciscoIn My Neighborhood in San Francisco  |  January 16, 2011 2:11 PM  |  56 views  |  No comments
    Roxie Movie Theater SF Ca

    The Roxie is the oldest continuously operating movie in San Francisco. The Roxie,  a 300-seat theater in the Mission hosts Bay Area and international film festivals,  indie movies and documentaries. Now the Roxie theater in the Mission is having problems, as is the Clay theater on Fiillmore.

    In 2005, Roxie was bought by New College of California,in the Mission and  became part of New College's Media Studies Program.  Now the New College is closed and the Roxie is on the brink.

    Outside of  the megaplex movie mold, the Roxie is an alternative theater. They show offbeat indie movies, supports local film artists and have added a new film and media school for film makers.

    The Roxie supports local artists and have always pushed the boundarys, offering more documentaries than any other theater in the country.  If you havent spent an evening in the Mission lately, this is a great part of town and the restaurants and bars are among the best in the city.

    Photo source: 24th Street Local.org

    Thanks For Reading
    www.yourpropertypath.com
  • Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase

    Posted Under: Market Conditions in San FranciscoHome Selling in San FranciscoFinancing in San Francisco  |  January 13, 2011 7:06 PM  |  65 views  |  No comments

    Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  01/12/2010

    Market Composite Index: (loan application volume)      increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent compared with the previous week

    Refinance Index: increased 4.9 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier

    Purchase Index:  increased 41.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 5.3 percent.  The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 7.5 percent for the Refinance Index.
    Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.0 percent the previous week 
    Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications in the previous week. 

    MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org) 

    The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.
    The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
    We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997.  This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.
    Related Articles
     
« Read older posts


January 25, 2011

Remodel: is It An Investment



People remodel because of immediate needs for the owner. Either its time for more space or just a desire to upgrade and modernize. Curb appeal and adding value is an important consideration, But resale value is hard to pin down.

Home evaluation is hostage to market forces and individual taste. Thats why Replacement projects always perform better in resale value than other types of remodeling projects. They are less expensive projects that contribute to curb appeal, a strong subjective factor among home buyers.

If you are remodeling because you need to reconfigure for your needs, always keep in mind the resale value of your remodel choice, but dont expect to get it all back. Balance your needs and consider the recapture amount of the project and then build out.

Whatever you do don't overspend and don't be too unique. Most projects wont return your costs and certainly outside the norm remodels can take forever to sell. So where should you put your money...

Biggest Bang For The Buck

Remodel magazine does an annual survey and they point out that declining home prices and lower construction costs were overmatched by a 15.8% drop in estimated resale values. The ongoing uncertainty and loss of equity has hurt the recapture rate of remodels and upgrades. In other words, buyers arent willing to pay for remodels.

Getting Your Money Back
Top five remodels   (chart).

1. Garage door replacement returned 84%
2. Entry doors returned 102%
3. fiber-cement siding replacement returned 80% of cost.
4/5. Wood deck additions (66 - 73%) tied with minor kitchen remodel returning (60 - 68%)

Getting the point? Dont go overboard. Most projects will return between 55 to 70% of your cost. If thats ok because you need space or will have lots of enjoyment then go ahead. But if you think you will recoup, likley not. 

January 20, 2011

Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Down for Second Week

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.71 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 13, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.77 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.06 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.08 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.45 percent

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.72 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.32 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.23 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.24 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.39 percen
Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
Bond yields drifted lower following the release of the December employment report , which was weaker than the market consensus forecast and implied that the labor market is still in a sluggish recovery.  Fixed mortgage rates followed bond yields lower for a second consecutive week, bringing them to a four-week low.

In its January 12th regional economic review, the Federal Reserve noted that activity in residential real estate and new home construction remained slow across all Districts over the last two months of 2010 due to concerns about the pace of economic recovery, especially in employment. In addition, the outlooks for residential real estate were mixed, with contacts in most Districts described as expecting continued weak conditions

Related Articles
FHA Financing Now Available For REO Properties
Short Sellers And The Forclosed Catch A Break
NARPM Green Landlording Survey

January 13, 2011

Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Long and Short- Term Mortgages Drop This Week

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.77 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 6, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.86 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.09 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.13 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.50 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.75 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.77 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.44 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.24 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.31 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates began the new year a little lower this week and remained below those at the start of 2010, which should help aid the recovery in the housing market. Low mortgage rates are an important factor in housing affordability , which in November was the highest since records began in 1971, according to the National Association of Realtors  Not surprisingly, the Realtors also reported that pending existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in November to the strongest pace since April when the homebuyer tax credit expired. More recently, mortgage applications for home purchases at the end of 2010 were roughly running at the same rate as the beginning of the year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association
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January 8, 2011

NAR On Energy Efficicency And Home Sales

Does It Matter?

NAR did a poll of buyers to test the importance of energy effiency to home buyers. Geographically, colder areas scored higher degrees of interest placed on energy effiency and buyers 55 and older had a greater preference for energy efficicent applicances than younger buyers.

By Income 29% of buyers with incomes over $100,000 per year thought heating and cooling costs were significant to their home buying decision, compared with 47% of buyers with incomes less than $45,000 per year. Going green is an early and growing interest for home buyers and a can be a sweetener to pique interest. Its not a deal breaker, but given two like properties, the one with money saving devices and the opportunity to be a good eco citizen can be the tipping point.
Tenants are also interested in green, because of the health benefits and monthly savings. Inexpensive energy efficient upgrades offer improvements in operating costs and savings to the tenant, all for very little outlay. Given the choice of being a good eco citizen and lower bills, tenants are opting for rentals that have green upgrades.

Unfortunately, the new Federal tax bill passed on Dec 17 puts a lid on this growing interest just when we need it the most. Heres how it hurts:

$858 Billion Federal Tax Bill

bad news for homeowners

Tax credits for energy-efficient remodeling are cut and will severly hurt jobs in that industry, the envioronment and an important but not yet pivotal sales point for buyers and sellers of homes.

1. Cut: From 30% of an improvements cost ($1,500 max per taxpayer) to a 10% credit, with a $500 maximum for expenditures on insulation materials, exterior windows and storm doors, skylights and metal and asphalt roofs that resist heat gain.

2. Cut: Limits on improvements once eligible for 30% credits. These include a $150 tax credit limit on the costs of energy efficient natural gas, propane and oil furnaces, and hot water boilers.
A $300 credit limit on the costs of central air-conditioning systems, electric heat pump water heaters, biomass stoves for heating or water heating, electric heat pumps, and natural gas and propane water heaters.

3. Cut: Limits allowable tax credits available for energy-efficient windows installed during 2011 to a total of $200, compared with the previous $1,500

Green is clearly a hot button issue and will become even more so, as we begin to deal with global warming. But this bill moves in the opposite direction, it hurts the environment, jobs, research and manufacturing and perhaps home sales. It sends a bad message in every way.

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