February 24, 2011
February 23, 2011
Is Search An Early Market Indicator
Real Estate Porn
The search bunny keeps on going
Its interesting that online search for real estate is as strong as ever. Sales are miserable, people are afraid to buy. They no longer know what value and they have no job security. So, why is search so strong. Realtor.com President, Errol Samuelson notes that Online search is a critical measure of interest in real estate, especially now that more than 90 percent of buyers search for their homes online. So what can we glean from data mining search. Well, it turns out quite a lot.
Search As An Economic Indicator
Studys that indicate that the answer is yes, search can indicate future interest. The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) recently published a study and concluded that predictive power of search can predict activity several weeks in advance.
Where Are The Top Ten
Sun Belt Still Strong
The top 10 most searched real estate markets in 2010 were established based on the number of visitors that viewed properties in each Metro Service Area (MSA) in the United States from January 2010 to December 2010 on Realtor.com. Despite changing market conditions in 2010, the nation’s top search destinations remained remarkably stable and focused on the sunshine states of California, Nevada, Florida, Texas and Arizona.
Bottom Fishing?
Or Just Entertainment?
Despite changing market conditions in 2010, the nation’s most searched destinations remained remarkably consistent, focusing on the sunshine states of California, Nevada, Florida, Texas and Arizona. Whether the strong interest in Real Estate is just window shopping or whether these states will seriously pop first when the buying public feels this is the bottom remains to be seen. Be interesting to see if the heavy search points to an early opportunity.
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The search bunny keeps on going
Its interesting that online search for real estate is as strong as ever. Sales are miserable, people are afraid to buy. They no longer know what value and they have no job security. So, why is search so strong. Realtor.com President, Errol Samuelson notes that Online search is a critical measure of interest in real estate, especially now that more than 90 percent of buyers search for their homes online. So what can we glean from data mining search. Well, it turns out quite a lot.
Search As An Economic Indicator
Studys that indicate that the answer is yes, search can indicate future interest. The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) recently published a study and concluded that predictive power of search can predict activity several weeks in advance.
Where Are The Top Ten
Sun Belt Still Strong
The top 10 most searched real estate markets in 2010 were established based on the number of visitors that viewed properties in each Metro Service Area (MSA) in the United States from January 2010 to December 2010 on Realtor.com. Despite changing market conditions in 2010, the nation’s top search destinations remained remarkably stable and focused on the sunshine states of California, Nevada, Florida, Texas and Arizona.
Bottom Fishing?
Or Just Entertainment?
Despite changing market conditions in 2010, the nation’s most searched destinations remained remarkably consistent, focusing on the sunshine states of California, Nevada, Florida, Texas and Arizona. Whether the strong interest in Real Estate is just window shopping or whether these states will seriously pop first when the buying public feels this is the bottom remains to be seen. Be interesting to see if the heavy search points to an early opportunity.
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February 10, 2011
Freddie Mac Weekly Update: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgags Rise to 5.05% Highest Level Since April 2010
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.05 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 10, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.97 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.29 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.34 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.92 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.19 percent
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.35 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac
Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week.
For all of 2010, nonfarm productivity rose 3.6 percent, the most since 2002, while Januarys unemployment ate unexpectedly fell from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent. Moreover, the service industry expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005.
As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010
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The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.29 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.34 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.92 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.19 percent
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.35 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac
Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week.
For all of 2010, nonfarm productivity rose 3.6 percent, the most since 2002, while Januarys unemployment ate unexpectedly fell from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent. Moreover, the service industry expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005.
As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010
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February 9, 2011
Fannie Mae Raises Borrowers Costs
Costs Will Increase For Buyers Regardless Of Credit Worthiness
Beginning April 1, 2011 Fannie Mae will implement a higher interest rate to borrowers even if they have a perfect credit score for all loans term over 15 years. Freddie Mac will change its fee structure changes on of March 1st.
Loan Level Price Adjustment
Borrowers will be charged either a higher interest rate derived from the size of the down payment or how much equity is in their home for refis.
Banks Get Conservative
Risk vs. Reward
New home buyers shopping for mortgages will face these fee increases
* Someone buying a home with credit OVER 740 with 25% or lower down payment will now pay approx .125% more in rate.
* A borrower with a credit score over 740 refinancing to 80% of the value of their home and taking out additional cash can expect to pay an additional .25% higher in rate.
* Anyone buying or refinancing a condominium (excluding detached condos) with less than 25% down payment (or equity) can expect an increase in rate of almost .5%
* Borrowers without larger down payments will see slightly higher rates.
* Buyers with lower credit scores, they can expect much higher rates.
Fannie and Freddie have learned their lesson. The politics of housing has changed from a congressional mandate to make home ownership more accessable, even to the unquaalified, to a rational and more profitable system. They/we lost a bundle and they are looking at another bad year with foreclosures expected to rise again in 2011.
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February 6, 2011
Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Show Mixed Results
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.81 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending February 4, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.80 percent.; Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.01 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: A veraged 4.08 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.09 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.69 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.70 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.27 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, the same as last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.22 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac
Mortgage rates held relatively stable this week on news that the economy improved and inflation remained in check at the end of 2010. In the fourth quarter, the economy grew at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, compared to 2.6 percent in the third quarter, and was led by a 4.4 percent gain in consumer spending. In addition, the core price index for consumer expenditures rose by an annualized rate of 0.4 percent, which was the smallest increase ever since records began in 1959
In the fourth quarter of 2010, housing was the most affordable on record according to figures published by the National Association of Realtors which date back to 1971
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The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: A veraged 4.08 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.09 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.69 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.70 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.27 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, the same as last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.22 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac
Mortgage rates held relatively stable this week on news that the economy improved and inflation remained in check at the end of 2010. In the fourth quarter, the economy grew at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, compared to 2.6 percent in the third quarter, and was led by a 4.4 percent gain in consumer spending. In addition, the core price index for consumer expenditures rose by an annualized rate of 0.4 percent, which was the smallest increase ever since records began in 1959
In the fourth quarter of 2010, housing was the most affordable on record according to figures published by the National Association of Realtors which date back to 1971
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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Applications Increase
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) A measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 13.2 percent compared with the previous week. The previous week did not include a holiday adjustment for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. .
Refinance Index: increased 11.7 percent from the previous week
Purchase Index: increased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 69.3 percent of total applications from 70.3 percent the previous week.
Arm Share: increased to 5.5 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.
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Refinance Index: increased 11.7 percent from the previous week
Purchase Index: increased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 69.3 percent of total applications from 70.3 percent the previous week.
Arm Share: increased to 5.5 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.
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February 2, 2011
Case Shiller: Will We Double Dip
Case Shiller report shows a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 
20 MSAs. Housing generally leads the economy out of a recession. This time its not, housing is simply suffering. Not only is money tight but job creation is still a big hurt. In some cities, the decline over the last year was quite sharp.
Artificial Stimulus
The tax credit
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20 MSAs. Housing generally leads the economy out of a recession. This time its not, housing is simply suffering. Not only is money tight but job creation is still a big hurt. In some cities, the decline over the last year was quite sharp.David M. Blitze,chairman of S.&P.’s index committee tells the NY Times that a double-dip could be confirmed before spring. He goes on to say the series is now only 4.8% and 3.3% above their April 2009 lows. Certainly nine cities set new lows, and with the only positive news concentrated in southern California and Washington DC, the data point to weakness in home prices.
S&P sounds dismal, indeed. David Wyss, S&Ps chief economist tells martketwatch that The recovery in home prices has not only stopped, it's going in reverse, that it's going to get worse before it gets better
S&P sounds dismal, indeed. David Wyss, S&Ps chief economist tells martketwatch that The recovery in home prices has not only stopped, it's going in reverse, that it's going to get worse before it gets better
Some Balance Is Needed
Artificial Stimulus
The tax credit
First, the index to a positive spike due to the tax credit, an artificial inducement to buy. Well it worked, and we saw buyers flood the market. But comparing new data to a spike that doesnt represent normal market behavior, but a artificial spike in home sales due to the tax credit can skew the true picture.
Seasonality
This is the slowest part of the year for home sales and must have something to do with the steep decline
Weather
Could the weather have been worse for the mid west and east coast? Winter is traditionally a poor indicator of market health.
Certainly, this market needs no excuses and Im not second guessing S&P, but lets not lose perspective - winter data is hardly a leading indicator for housing markets and there is more to the story than the data is expressing
Apartment Sector: First One Out
Rent vs Buy End Of Year 2010
A Recent Survey: Is It Time To Buy Rental Property
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