November 29, 2008

Case Shiller Index Tracks Actual Prices of Home Sales

Following the top five markets is the Case-Shiller index. This is an important index to follow because it tracks actual the actual sales price of a property each time it sells. Its a real indication of whether a price for the same property has gone up or down year over year.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed since 2007. Note; the top five markets in the Urban Land Institute survey, posted below are commercial markets. The Case Shiller index shows San Francisco off a whopping 29.5%, indicating that perhaps its weighted towards home rather than apartment or commercial property.

1-Year Change (%)
Atlanta - 9.5%
Boston - 5.7%
Charlotte - 3.5%
Chicago -10.1%
Cleveland -6.4%
Dallas -2.7%
Denver -5.4%
Detroit -18.6%
Las Vegas -31.3%
Los Angeles -27.6%
Miami -28.4%
Minneapolis -14.4%
New York -7.3%
Phoenix -31.9%
Portland -8.6%
San Diego -26.3%
San Francisco -29.5%
Seattle -9.8%
Tampa -18.5%
Washington -17.2%
** All markets are down

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Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

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Five good markets for Investment Property

The Urban Land Institute surveyed real estate professionals looking for the best commercial markets for investment in this economic climate. The top five markets according to the professionals surveyed were:

1. Seattle
2. San Francisco
3.Washington DC
4.New York
5.L.A.

The common qualities shared by all five cities were diversified by industry, did participate in the residential market boom and therefore did not have a housing glut and are able to attract international investments. There is no indication that commercial real estate precedes a healthy residential market, but it seems that a good business climate would certainly make that more likely.

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Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

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30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate at Seven Week Low

McLean, VA Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.97 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending November 26, 2008, down from last week when it averaged 6.04 percent. Last year at this time,the 30-year FRM averaged 6.10 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been this low since October 9, 2008, when it was 5.94 percent.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 6.10 percent.The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has not been this low since October 9, 2008, when it was 5.94 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.74 percent with an average 0.7 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 5.73 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.73 percent.

Five-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages: Averaged 5.86 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 5.87 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.86 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 5.18 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 5.29 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.43 percent.

"Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell for the fourth consecutive week as signs the overall economy is flagging lowered most interest rates market-wide," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "And economic growth in the third quarter was revised downward this week, led by the first decline in consumer spending since the fourth quarter of 1991 and the largest drop since the second quarter of 1980.

Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

Your Property Path Amazon Store

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November 15, 2008

FDIC has a PlanTo Save 4 million Homes from Foreclesure

FDIC Proposes to Gurantee 2.2 Million Modified Loans

The idea is to help borrowers with weak credit or small down payments. Borrowers would get lowered interest rates or longer loan terms to lower payments. This program can last for a period of time, giving owners some breathing room. The program would attempt to keep monthly payments under 31% for weak borrowers.

According to the FDIC site: The pace of loan modifications continues to be extremely slow (around 4 percent of seriously delinquent loans each month).

Basic Structure of the Proposal
1. By paying servicers $1,000 to cover expenses for each loan modified according to the required standards
2. Sharing up to 50% of losses incurred if a modified loan should subsequently re-default

The FDIC says its plans should apply to an estimated 4.4 million loans that are likely to become delinquent though the end of next year. The FDIC expects the plan to apply to 4.4 million loans that are likely to become delinquent though the end of next year.

Fannie and Freddie have their own plans to help their borrowers and the banks, however slowly are beginning to step up. B of A will help renegotiate 400,000 loans and Citi is doing a similar work out program. The trend will take some time to show results because we have so many defaults and it will get worse this year because the credit crunch is beginning to show in terms of jobs. But i think we are beginning to get serious. The biggest risk to success are ineffective policies.

Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

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November 12, 2008

The Banks Are Finally Stepping Up


No Auction for Bad Mortgage Debt

Buying up bad mortgage debt was once what the TARP program was at its core. The idea was that banks would begin to lend again if there balance sheets were in better shape and they knew the value of what mortgages were worth. Because no institution was any longer buying mortgages, they couldnt put a value on them. Finally deciding to be prudent (after tanking the entire system) they just stopped lending.

The Govts first answer was to create an auction since this would provide a market place and others could bid on bank paper thus establishing a price. The banks would then be able to see what their balance sheets were worth and the Govt would buy up all the bad paper no one else wanted.

Happy banks lend money right? Not this time.... Ten banks were given 25 billion dollars to grease the wheels and start the lending process. They decided to use the money for bonus's and mergers. Salaries and junkets continued.

The New TARP Program

TARP now agrees that the auction idea was a bad one. It was a give away, whereby we would own the worst of the mortgage debt and banks would get to step away from the problem they created. it decided that giving capital to banks in return for preferred stock was a better use of the funds. This makes the Govt an owner and able to direct some of the bank activity as a major owner. I like the idea of this kind of control, if it is exercised on our behalf.

Much of the money earmarked for the auction will now go towards credit card debt, auto loans and student loans, much ore directly to the benefit of the people who have been harmed by irresponsible lending.

Some new facilities for commercial paper and a possible liquidity facility for highly-rated AAA asset-backed securities, will help bring back the money flow.

The Bank Can Sort it Out

Bank of America has been ordered to renegotiate some 400,00 mortgages it inherited from Country Wide. A slew of foreclosure-prevention initiatives were announced by Citi. IndyMac is in a similar process.

What Does it Mean for Real Estate

Now that the banks are stabilizing and will be forced to work out loans, we should see less foreclosures on the market, less short sales and eventually a long bottoming out process. With 7-10 million homes late or in default this is finally the beginning of a direct response to that problem.

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Thanks for Reading

Howard Bell

www.yourpropertypath.com

A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/

Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

Your Property Path Amazon Store

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November 9, 2008

Housing Can Save the Economy

National Association of Realtors in Orlando

Lawrence Yun, economist for NAR at the Orlando conference notes that the depth of the current recession depends on the housing market’s recovery, and that will depend on stabilizing prices and inventory absorptions

Home sales showed their first increase in three years during the last quarter. Yun “We are beginning to come back, but recovery won’t happen until inventories are reduced from their current 10-month levels back to a more normal six months. Even more critical to a housing recovery are stabilizing home prices. Only then will new buyers get back into the marketplace and underwater buyers be able to consider moving up, he added" via the Palm Beach Post.

NAR had some proposals for the next administration:

1. NAR to urge Congress to create a housing-specific stimulus package. Its chief component, Yun said, would empower the government to "buy down" mortgages to as low as 4.5 percent.
2. A one-year program in which the federal government would cover the mortgage fees or points, enabling borrowers pay to lower interest rates.
3. NAR also proposed that the $7,500 tax credit be made permanent.
4. Yun said a buydown of 1 point, "might be sufficient to absorb 800,000 homes in the marketplace". That would cost the US Govt about 100 billion. With as many as 4 million homes thought to be late or in default nationwide, this would help a great deal.

To date, the focus has been on the banks. The $25 billion given to the top banks will not go towards new loans as intended. They have already indicated that this money will go toward bonuses and mergers. New tax law favorable to banks that merge and take on bad debt is already in place.

The housing crises is now in the steepest price declines since the great depression. Housing is the key cause and the solution. These proposals will help soak up available supply and halt the onslaught of many homes on the market. Keeping people out of foreclosure and bankruptcy and able to pay bills is the key to stabilizing the economy.

Thanks for Reading
Howard Bell
www.yourpropertypath.com
A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF
http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/
Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

Your Property Path Amazon Store
http://astore.amazon.com/yourpropertypath20-20
super deals on agent open house tools
We hand picked Amazon for the tools you need

November 2, 2008

Mortgage Workouts Getting Serious


JP Morgan plans mortgage workouts to help 400,000 homeowners avoid foreclosure. They are in a rush to avoid more foreclosures and will institute new programs to keep homeowners in their home within the next three months.

Expect independent reviews of all these mortgages, many of which are the option pays that lead to negative amortization. Jp is afraid many people with high monthlies and no equity will satrt to walk. This a huge aggregation of mortgage holders - much larger than the subprime market that literarly broke the bank. And they have every reason to be afraid.

JP will temporarily suspend foreclosures while the changes are implemented.
JPMorgan will create new financing alternatives and renegotiate existing loans. I think you can expect to see this develop into a trend. The banks have finally realized that the foreclosures they allowed to go to market are tanking everything. lets see much more of this!

Thanks for Reading
Howard Bell
www.yourpropertypath.com
A web site of over 450 articles related to real estate focused primarily on property management.

Your Property PathSF

http://yourpropertypath.blogspot.com/
Trade talk for the San Francisco real estate industry. Your source for property management tips, policies and market trends.

Your Property Path Amazon Store

http://astore.amazon.com/yourpropertypath20-20
super deals on agent open house tools
We hand picked Amazon for the tools you need